Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment for National Park Infrastructure Proximal to Taranaki Volcano (New Zealand)

Hazard assessment for infrastructure proximal to a volcanic vent raises issues that are often not present, or as severe in hazard assessments more distal infrastructure. Proximal regions subject greater number of hazardous phenomena, and variability impact intensity increases with the magnitude. To probabilistically quantify infrastructure, multiple hazards their effects on exposed elements need be considered. Compared single-hazard assessments, multi-hazard increase size complexity determining occurrence magnitude, typically introducing additional uncertainties quantification risk. A location-centred approach, focusing key locations rather than hazards, can simplify problem one requiring identification potential affect location, followed by probability these triggering eruptions. The approach is compatible multi-source allows different estimation methodologies applied appropriate type. We present probabilistic using this location centred within Te Papakura o Taranaki National Park, New Zealand. proposed park from activity (originating Mt. Taranaki) quantified chain provide structured integrate differing methods eruption estimates asset lifetimes. This location-centered provides quantitative significantly improve summit vent. Volcanic mass flows, predominantly pyroclastic surges block ash most likely (probability >0.8) walking tracks if an occurs. eruption(s) next 50 years estimated at 0.35–0.38. use chains centered demonstrates technique globally.